by Aner Ravon
Jerking off.
What exactly is the deal with the “Are We in a Bubble” symposium? Is there a point to this conversation?
What started with a soft spoken debate seems to be going religious. It’s not enough to have just a point of view anymore, you need to subscribe to a camp. You either think we are about to burst, or the exact opposite.
It’s not that I don’t have my own point of view, of course. Personally, I think some portions of the tech market are somewhat inflated with gold diggers. I see investments in “over valued” start-ups (can someone explain what “over valued” means exactly? over valued compared to what? to the personal taste of the critique?). I see a lot of activity in what seems to be over saturated niches and in technology that will not mature so fast. Most importantly, I see a lot of desire for short term short cuts.
On the other hand, I see so much exciting stuff out there. So many bright, thinking entrepreneurs and so much venture capital - 2 sides that still, for the most part, simply fail to meet. I see so much need for better communications, information management, medical solutions and programs, fun and entertainment, recreation, financial and equity management, personal accomplishment and so much more.
The debate is not about a bubble but about the road to success - it’s length, it’s mapping, it’s challenges. Long distance runners don’t see a bubble and don’t care for the debate. The term “Bubble” is abusive because it overshadows the industry instead of referring to what it should refer to - the potential for short term speculations.
While this debate is important, it is secondary to the whole scene.
Aner Ravon
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I think that people talk about the bubble because they’ve seen the havoc that a burst bubble can cause, and they’re worried. It’s kind of like a therapeutic exercise - it shows we recognize the enemy (burst bubble). We’re prepared. It can’t sneak up on us this time. We won’t make the same mistakes again since we’re so much smarter this time.
And then maybe, if we talk about it enough, that darn bubble (if it even exists) will think twice before it bursts and we lose our VC millions, jobs, etc.
I just read on Between the Lines on ZDNet, which seems relevant:
That might be the problem - is it possible that the hype surrounding Web 2.0 is overshadowing innovation as a criteria for investment? If so, that may explain the obsession with the bubble - a subconscious awareness of possibly being taken in by hype…
03.21.07 @ 8:21 pmI agree with both comments. I think fear is only natural in upturn situations, but I don’t like the “popular science” it has become.
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Why is everyone talking about a bubble??? there is a turkish folk saying: “After you burn your tongue on hot water, you will blow on lukewarm water too”. I think that the emergance of every new market is characterized by waves of enthusiasm and dissapointment, and the internet did that big time. For people who lost so much money, jobs, and most of all - reputation, it is only natural that they are now more careful. Of course, people react too late and now it is time to move forward without so much caution… (the secnd wave is always smaller). Anyway, the debate is really overblown but the question itself stays important for every businessman and high-tech worker.
03.21.07 @ 2:51 pm