What’s Tripping Triple-Play
by Aner Ravon

I am a bit schizophrenic when it comes to Triple play convergence. Triple play is the most rational conclusion of any long term analysis of the relevant markets. Be it Voice, Pictures, Video and Data or TV, Internet, Landline and Mobile – there is too much sense in their respective consolidation and integration. I, however, don’t see the quantum leap happening any time soon. I do see a long march of small steps that will take quite a few years to reach a critical “Triple Play” mass. Make no mistake, the march is very much on and all players should be in focused of their strategy board. But that’s true at the micro level. In the actual battlefield. The overall transition will take many years.

Here are the top 10 inhibitors I see:

1. User Need and Education – errr…who exactly needs it? Some people think it’s the most significant factor. Advocating the benefits of triple play will take generations in Hi-Tech years. My generation already has a difficult time making use of VOIP. Most of us do not have DVR or VOD, and if we do we use like we used our VCR. Most of us do not have smart phones (they are too clumsy, buggy and expensive), have never downloaded an application to a mobile device and have never looked for IP alternatives when it comes to mobile data or TV broadcasting. Significant early adopters, yes, but we all are still a long way from shore.2. Mobile operators – Yes, the Internet is bound to conquer mobile data users whether operators like it or not, but try selling that to a mobile operator. They need to go through such a strategic, organizational, technical and service revolution. We are talking years. A high number of them. Operators take their convergence with a spoon – PC to Mobile off portal services, Mobile TV, Mobile Video Calls, Mobile Music, Multiplayer gaming. They will continue taking it step by step. Step by step. Sometimes two steps forward, three steps back.

3. Mobile devices – for crying out loud, this has been bugging me the most. I don’t understand why mobile Java is still a black hole after being around for so long. I don’t understand why mobile browsers are so dispersed and why there are so many data formats. As a matter of fact I do understand which is exactly why I don’t envision a Eureka anytime soon.

4. TV operators – In summary – they hate Triple Play. We need to wait for their consolidation with other significant players or for competition to fundamentally mature.
5. Media Centers – Have you tried installing and wiring a media center? In a way that replaces your Stereo, your media directory, your TV set top box, your DVR and VOD? I’m scared of even trying. It’s got to be plug and play first! Oh yeah…and cost effective!

6. Misunderstanding the internet – As much as I love the internet, some things simply don’t make sense. Making a cellular call using VOIP, for example, is stupid. You can’t beat cellular operators with cellular calls. Assuming I will use my TV as a personal computer is also stupid. And there are so many more.

7. Interoperability – The networks need to speak and we all know that, but they are years a way from a meaningful conversation. Mobile networks, TV networks and the Internet need to be integrated. Not with duct tape. If you don’t follow me try sending a picture you just snapped with your mobile phone to my email address and wait for my reply.

8. Geography – In my country I still need to hack some illegal internet sites if I want to watch the up and coming soccer world cup. That’s because the distribution rights are owned by some idiotic company called Charlton, and they sell obscenely expensive pay per view packages. I also can’t use iTunes here. Oh, and I can’t watch the NBA. Need I say more?

9. Google – Google is not really to blame. They do, however, cast a paralyzing shadow on every small company (and their respective VCs) trying to take a hack.

10. Microsoft – the Microsoft effect has gone a little pale compared to the Google effect lately, but make no mistake, it’s there. Microsoft has been doing IPTV for ages, has been trying to bully its way into the mobile phone market for years and has been trying to dominate the Media Center market by turning windows into my entertainment OS. None of these strategies looks successful so far, but they certainly deter quite a few reasonal options.

So in short, my Triple Play advice is to keep short term expetations reasonable. Take it step by step, or play by play. Treat each use case with reasoning and not with romanticism. Some of these use cases are huge. Interesting years are ahead.

Aner Ravon
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