I am a bit schizophrenic when it comes to Triple play convergence. Triple play is the most rational conclusion of any long term analysis of the relevant markets. Be it Voice, Pictures, Video and Data or TV, Internet, Landline and Mobile – there is too much sense in their respective consolidation and integration. I, however, don’t see the quantum leap happening any time soon. I do see a long march of small steps that will take quite a few years to reach a critical “Triple Play” mass. Make no mistake, the march is very much on and all players should be in focused of their strategy board. But that’s true at the micro level. In the actual battlefield. The overall transition will take many years.

Here are the top 10 inhibitors I see:

1. User Need and Education – errr…who exactly needs it? Some people think it’s the most significant factor. Advocating the benefits of triple play will take generations in Hi-Tech years. My generation already has a difficult time making use of VOIP. Most of us do not have DVR or VOD, and if we do we use like we used our VCR. Most of us do not have smart phones (they are too clumsy, buggy and expensive), have never downloaded an application to a mobile device and have never looked for IP alternatives when it comes to mobile data or TV broadcasting. Significant early adopters, yes, but we all are still a long way from shore. (more…)